Putins Unwavering Demands and Escalating Attacks Highlight Stalemate in Ukraine Peace Efforts

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s unyielding stance on a Ukraine peace plan underscores his determination to achieve Russia’s demands. By presenting stringent, non-negotiable conditions in peace negotiations while simultaneously launching relentless missile and drone attacks on Ukraine, Putin conveys a resolute message: he will only accept a settlement on his terms and will persist in the conflict until these terms are fulfilled.

Simultaneously, Putin has endeavored to avoid antagonizing U.S. President Donald Trump by commending his diplomatic efforts and professing Moscow’s willingness to engage in peace talks. However, he has established maximalist conditions that are unequivocally rejected by Kyiv and the West.

Trump, who once vowed to terminate the three-year-old war within 24 hours, has disrupted the U.S. policy of isolating Russia by engaging in calls with Putin and disparaging Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Nevertheless, Trump has cautioned Putin against “tapping me along” and threatened Moscow with sanctions if it fails to endorse his peace proposals.

In recent days, Trump has indicated a waning patience with Putin, asserting that the Russian leader has gone “crazy” by escalating aerial attacks on Ukraine. Trump also remarked, “What Vladimir Putin doesn’t realize is that if it weren’t for me, lots of really bad things would have already happened to Russia, and I mean REALLY BAD. He’s playing with fire!”

Dmitry Medvedev, a former Russian president and current deputy head of Putin’s Security Council, retorted, “I only know of one REALLY BAD thing — WWIII. I hope Trump understands this!” Fyodor Lukyanov, a Moscow-based analyst familiar with Kremlin thinking, suggested that Putin is engaged in a “psychological game” with Trump, with both leaders believing they comprehend each other well.

“Putin’s tactics are apparently based on an assumption that the issue has a lesser priority for his interlocutor, who wants to resolve it one way or another, while for the Russian side, nothing compares to it in importance,” Lukyanov wrote in a commentary. “In this logic, the one who sees it as something of lesser importance will eventually make concessions.”

While Ukraine’s European allies urge Trump to escalate sanctions against Moscow to compel it to accept a ceasefire, some fear that Trump may ultimately distance the U.S. from the conflict. If the U.S. curtails or reduces military aid to Kyiv, it would significantly undermine Ukraine’s combat capabilities.

Kyiv is already grappling with a shortage of weapons, particularly air defense systems, rendering it increasingly susceptible to Russian missile and drone attacks. Across the over 1,000-kilometer (over 600-mile) front line, exhausted and outgunned Ukrainian troops are confronting mounting Russian pressure. This month, Russian forces have accelerated their slow advance across the Donetsk region, the focal point of Moscow’s offensive, penetrating Ukrainian defenses at the swiftest pace since last fall. Russia has also expanded its attacks in the northeastern Sumy and Kharkiv regions following Putin’s pledge to establish a buffer zone along the border.

Many observers anticipate that Russia will broaden its offensive over the summer to seize more territory and impose even harsher conditions for peace. “Moscow thinks its leverage over Ukraine will build over time, and since Trump has strongly implied that he will withdraw from negotiations, the Russian military is poised to intensify its operations,” said Jack Watling of the Royal United Services Institute in London. He predicted that Russia would redouble its efforts to capture the entirety of the Donetsk region while continuing its bombing campaign.

“The Kremlin will want to suggest a deteriorating situation as negotiations continue and to signal to Europe that the rear is not safe, to discourage European militaries from deploying forces in the country,” Watling said in an analysis.

Sergei Markov, a pro-Kremlin, Moscow-based analyst, noted that the long-anticipated offensive has not yet commenced in earnest as Russia is cautious not to provoke Trump. “If Kyiv derails peace talks, the Russian army will launch a major offensive,” Markov said.

Putin’s conditions for peace include Ukraine’s withdrawal from Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson—the four regions that Russia illegally annexed in September 2022 but never fully controlled. This demand has been rejected by Kyiv and its allies, yet the Russian delegation reportedly reiterated it during talks with Ukraine in Istanbul on May 16. These talks, the first since the failed negotiations in the early stages of the war, followed Putin’s effective rejection of a 30-day truce proposed by Trump, which Kyiv accepted. Russia had linked such a ceasefire to a halt in Ukraine’s mobilization effort and a freeze on Western arms supplies.

Putin proposed talks to discuss conditions for a possible truce. Trump swiftly urged Kyiv to accept the offer, but the negotiations yielded no immediate progress except for an agreement to exchange 1,000 prisoners each. Russia offered to hold another round of talks in Istanbul, where it said it would present a memorandum outlining conditions for ending hostilities. It refused to share the document before the negotiations.

Some observers view the talks as an attempt by Putin to placate Trump’s growing impatience. “Putin has devised a way to offer Trump an interim, tangible outcome from Washington’s peace efforts without making any real concessions,” said Tatiana Stanovaya of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.

Facing Western accusations of stalling, the Kremlin responded that the conflict cannot be resolved quickly and emphasized the need to address its “root causes.” When Putin invaded Ukraine, he claimed the move was necessary to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO and to protect Russian speakers in the country—arguments vehemently rejected by Kyiv and its Western allies as a pretext for an unprovoked act of aggression.

In addition to these demands, Putin seeks limitations on Ukraine’s sovereignty, including the size of Ukraine’s military, and for Kyiv to cease what Moscow perceives as the glorification of Ukraine’s World War II-era nationalist leaders, some of whom sided with the invading forces of Nazi Germany over the Soviet leadership in the Kremlin.

To emphasize that Moscow will persist with its initial demands, Putin appointed his aide Vladimir Medinsky to lead the Russian delegation in Istanbul. Medinsky also led the Russian side in the 2022 talks. Kyiv has reportedly requested the U.S. to encourage Putin to replace him.

The 54-year-old career bureaucrat, born in Ukraine, rose through the Kremlin ranks after authoring a series of books exposing purported Western plots against Russia. In an interview with Russian state television following the May 16 talks, Medinsky referenced Russia’s 18th-century war with Sweden that lasted 21 years, signaling that Moscow is prepared to fight for an extended period until its demands are met. “History repeats itself in a remarkable way,” he said.