New Jerseys Gubernatorial Primaries: A Prelude to the General Election Showdown on Trumps Tax Cuts and Program Cuts

In the final days of New Jersey’s contested primary for governor, Democratic and Republican candidates are providing a preview of the general election campaign. They are debating the Trump tax breaks and program cuts recently passed by the House, presenting them in starkly different ways.

Each side is using the measure as a weapon against the other. Depending on the party, Trump is either a tax-cutting hero cleaning up the nation’s immigration system and reducing the federal government, or a rogue president recklessly targeting U.S. citizens, increasing federal debt, and slashing benefits for older and sicker Americans without regard for the law or consequences.

This sharp contrast in the primaries suggests New Jersey voters will face clear decisions in the November general election. Their choices, even in a state long dominated by Democrats, could indicate how President Donald Trump’s aggressive second term is perceived nationwide.

The wrangling in New Jersey precedes the June 10 primary, one of only two governors’ contests this year. The other is in Virginia. Both are being watched for signs of how Democrats will respond to Trump’s 2024 victory and his agenda, and for Republicans, as a fresh test of the president’s popularity.

The legislation, which Republicans call a “big, beautiful bill,” is central to the debate. In social media sparring, Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill opposed the bill, while Republican Jack Ciattarelli highlighted the benefits of its tax cuts. Both are seen as leading contenders for their parties’ nominations.

Sherrill argued the bill would increase costs and attempted to link Ciattarelli to cuts in health care and food assistance. Ciattarelli criticized Sherrill for opposing tax cuts for many residents, stating they are needed in New Jersey due to Democrats making it the highest-taxed state in America.

The sniping could continue into the general election, experts say. Democrats aim to blame the president and his party for unpopular cuts to social safety net programs, while the GOP seeks to attribute economic difficulties to Democrats, who have controlled state government for eight years.

Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy is term-limited after two wins. In a climate where voters may seek change, the question is whether they hate Phil Murphy or Donald Trump more. Julie Roginsky, a Democratic campaign strategist, posed the question: “Are they looking to turn the page on Phil Murphy or Donald Trump?”

Along with Sherrill, Rep. Josh Gottheimer, Mayors Ras Baraka of Newark and Steven Fulop of Jersey City, former Senate President Steve Sweeney, and teacher’s union executive Sean Spiller are in a competitive contest for the Democratic nomination. Sherrill has the backing of several influential county parties.

The contest is unfolding in a new era, after the downfall of the county party line, a New Jersey-specific practice where local parties could give their preferred candidates favorable ballot placement. With each Democratic candidate garnering support from different parts of the party base, it is difficult to determine who is in the lead.

A common thread among Democrats is scathing criticism of the president and Republicans in Washington. Baraka made national headlines when he was arrested on a federal trespassing charge, later dropped, for inspecting an immigration detention center in Newark. Sherrill, Gottheimer, and Spiller visited the site in a show of support and to demonstrate their opposition to the president’s immigration crackdown.

On the GOP side, the race changed significantly after Trump endorsed Ciattarelli, giving his approval to the small business owner and former state lawmaker who once called the president a “charlatan.” Ciattarelli has since embraced the president, whose endorsement is widely seen as decisive in the GOP primary. Other Republicans in the contest have not, for the most part, disavowed the president, whose influence is evident in the candidates’ rhetoric.

New Jersey has been reliably Democratic in presidential and Senate contests for decades, but Republicans perform better in governors’ contests, with each of the last three GOP governors winning two terms. Democrats have struggled to find a message since Trump’s victory last year, with the winner of the New Jersey primary likely to attract national attention as the party seeks to build on special election victories, even among GOP voters. Republicans hope Democrats’ eight years of state government control will lead voters to take out their frustrations on the party in power in Trenton rather than on Trump.

New Jersey has seen its Democratic voter registration dip from about 1 million more than Republicans to roughly 800,000 more. Unaffiliated voters rival the Democrats’ advantage. Micah Rasmussen, director of the Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics at Rider University, suggested Democrats cannot be complacent. “One of the things we have to remember is there’s something about the office of governor,” he said. “Voters are looking for something beyond ideology when it comes to our governors. They want executive administration skills — and sometimes they are willing to vote for Republicans.”