New Jersey Gubernatorial Primary: Democrats Crucial Battle for Latino Support

New Jersey’s gubernatorial primary has become a critical test for Democrats aiming to regain Latino support nationwide. This race underscores the challenges Democrats face in traditionally blue areas, where their loss of Hispanic support in 2024 was more significant than in battleground states. President Donald Trump reduced Democratic margins in New Jersey and New York, even flipping some heavily Latino towns he had lost by large margins in 2016.

The Democratic primary features a seasoned lineup of candidates: U.S. Reps. Josh Gottheimer and Mikie Sherrill, Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop, Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, New Jersey Education Association president and former Montclair Mayor Sean Spiller, and former state Senate President Steve Sweeney.

Despite Trump’s focus on border security, his economic message resonated with Latinos. More Hispanics prioritized inflation over other issues last fall, according to AP VoteCast. This year’s campaign has seen strategists, unions, organizers, and politicians shift away from immigration, emphasizing economic concerns instead.

“At the end of the day, if you’re worried about paying your bills and being safe at night, everything else is secondary,” Rep. Gottheimer noted. “I think that is front and center in the Latino community.”

Laura Matos, a Democratic National Committee member from New Jersey, warns that Democratic support among Hispanic voters cannot be taken for granted. While there was a significant rightward shift among Hispanics in Texas and Florida, the trend was similarly pronounced in blue states like New Jersey and New York. In New Jersey, 43% of Latino voters supported Trump, up from 28% in 2020. In New York, 36% of Latino voters backed Trump, up from 25% in 2020.

Trump gained notably with Dominican voters, increasing his support from 31% to 43%. Of New Jersey’s 2 million Latinos, over 375,000 are Dominican, the second-largest Hispanic group in the state after Puerto Ricans, where Trump’s support also rose from 31% to 39%.

Sherrill’s campaign manager acknowledged the risk of a Republican win in November, despite New Jersey’s Democratic lean in presidential and Senate elections. Republicans have won the governorship in recent decades.

Strategists and union leaders agree that Latinos’ concerns mirror those of other working-class voters. Ana Maria Hill, New Jersey state director of the Service Employees International Union Local 32BJ, highlights the popularity of raising the minimum wage and capping rent increases among Hispanic members. She argues that Democrats lost ground by not addressing the real-world economic struggles that hit Latinos hard after pandemic-induced inflation.

Gottheimer held a press conference at a Latino supermarket in Elizabeth, a vibrant Latino hub, discussing economic challenges. Sherrill visited a Colombian restaurant in Elizabeth for a ‘Get Out the Vote’ rally, emphasizing the economy, affordable housing, transportation, and small business growth.

Newark Mayor Baraka seized the spotlight on immigration after being arrested while trying to join an oversight tour of an immigrant detention center. Although the trespass charge was dropped, he sued interim U.S. Attorney Alina Habba over the dropped prosecution.

Former state assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli, making his third bid for governor with Trump’s backing, faces four challengers for the GOP nomination. During a telephone rally, Trump called New Jersey a “high-tax, high-crime sanctuary state,” accusing local officials of not cooperating with federal immigration authorities.

Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop, another Democratic contender, believes the gubernatorial race will be a referendum on current Gov. Phil Murphy. He thinks the Latino community in New Jersey, which is growing significantly, remains a swing vote, with no clear favorite.